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| Multivariate Regression Study on Immature Autologous Internal Arteriovenous Fistula |
| WANG Dao, LIAO Wen, CAO Shan, LIU Haohao, SUN Fenfen |
| First-author's address: Pingxiang People's Hospital, Jiangxi Province, Pingxiang 337000, China |
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Abstract Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of immature autologous internal arteriovenous fistula and construct a prediction model. Method: A total of 1 001 patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease who had established autologous internal arteriovenous fistula in Pingxiang People's Hospital from June 2016 to June 2021 were selected as the research subjects. According to whether the patients' internal fistula had mature, they were divided into mature internal fistula group (n=735) and immature internal fistula group (n=266). The clinical data of patients were collected, and the influencing factors of immature autologous internal arteriovenous fistula were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression, and a prediction model was constructed, and its predictive value was evaluated. Result: Obesity (OR=2.542), diabetes (OR=4.923), hypoproteinemia (OR=3.408), diameter of radial artery (OR=0.416), diameter of cephalic vein (OR=0.587) and C reactive protein (OR=3.487) were influencing factors of immature autologous internal arteriovenous fistula (P<0.05). The prediction model was constructed: Y=1/(1+e-x), X=-2.958 + 0.933×obesity + 1.594×diabetes + 1.226×hypoalbuminemia - 0.877×diameter of radial artery -0.533×diameter of cephalic vein + 1.249×C reactive protein. The area under the ROC curve was 0.820 [95%CI (0.794, 0.846), P<0.001], the sensitivity was 81.55%, and the specificity was 67.26%. Conclusion: Obesity, diabetes, hypoproteinemia, diameter of radial artery, diameter of cephalic vein and C reactive protein are closely related to immature autologous internal arteriovenous fistula, the model constructed in this study has good prediction value and can be used for clinical reference.
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Received: 14 March 2023
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